Tuesday, June 19, 2007

Early Bird Preview

Oh, BTFFL competition is just around the corner. Spring has come and gone, summer will only be a blink of an eye. Let’s take a look at the way the keepers and draft are shaping up.

First, the likely keepers.

We’ll start with Blue Ox Bowl champion Golden Goblins.

Definite: Tyrell Sutton, James Hardy

Probable: MN RB Amir Pinnix or Jay Thomas

Unlikely: Kory Sheets, Damien Sims, Adrian Arrington, Deon Butler

Halifax Spitfires

Definite: PJ Hill, Kellen Lewis, Mario Manningham

Probable: Rashard Mendenhall

Unlikely: None

MN Fightin’ Farmers

Definite: Chris Wells

Probable: None

Unlikely: Javon Ringer, Derrick Williams, Todd Boeckmann

Bucky’s Goodgers

Definite: Mike Hart, Curtis Painter, Isiah Williams, Albert Young, Dorien Bryant

Probable: None

Unlikely: None

Why and what it means:

GG – Sutton and Hardy both had somewhat disappointing seasons in 2006 but they are undoubtedly keepers for 2007. Both could be the #1 fantasy scorer at their position and Sutton might challenge for the top overall scorer if all goes right for him and NW. Pinnix was one of the bargains of the BTFFL last season, scorned by the rest of the league, he was a reliable second Running Back. The only catch is will Pinnix be the starter or will the more talented late season star Jay Thomas take over? And if Matt knows who the week 1 starter is, will the coaching change make Gopher Running Backs less attractive to BTFFL Schools? Unless I’m mistaken, none of the remaining players will be strong enough to keep – Sheets maybe.

HS – This team is loaded and was robbed! PJ Hill returns from an overall #1 BTFFL season in 2006. Kellen Lewis has to be the surprise player of 2006. Indiana’s QB 4th best BTFFL QB and a top 10 overall performer! Touchdown! will be the #1 WR in the BTFFL for the second year in a row. Rashard Mendenhall will likely be kept – after Juice took over, the Illinois Offense suddenly looked good and Mendenhall produced.

MNFF – “Beanie” should make the Farmers competitive this year. He looks like a monster in an offense that will be looking for an identity. If Antonio Pittman could look good behind that line, I suspect Wells will very quickly be a Heisman hopeful. The rest of the players are marginal and difficult to see as legitimate keepers but one could become sold on any one of them.

BG – Last year’s regular season champ (6 weekly high scores) brings back every major contributor but QB Drew Stanton. None of these guys are really questionable, although Albert Young did split time with Damien Sims last season and likely will again. This core means that the Goodgers will likely again emerge from the draft as the favorites to win the BTFFL.

Keeper breakdown by position:

3 QB
6 RB
3 WR

For the first time in several years, there is not a clear cut player to be taken with the number one pick. Last season it was Hill, the season before, an even better Badger back, Brian Calhoun. This season, unless something strange happens between now and the draft, there will not be that kind of BTFFL stud available.

But there will be other similarities to last years draft. Like last year, there will be a great deal of uncertainty surrounding the Quarterback position. There will be 5 brand new starters this season (OSU, Iowa, Minnesota, Wisconsin, Michigan State). Of that group, some are bound to be valuable BTFFL starters for years to come, others will certainly disappoint their owners. Don’t want to take a chance on a new starter? The returning unkept starters are not without serious warts: Michigan’s Henne, Northwestern’s Bacher, and Penn State’s Morelli.

At the same time, there will be even less talent at Running Back than last season. No PJ Hill, no “Beanie” Wells. There will likely be a group of suspect but potentially serviceable Running Backs – the Kory Sheets/Jaycen Taylors, Javon Ringers/Jehuu Caulcricks and Austin Scotts of the world.

That leaves the WR pool. Last season, the top 4 WR were not keepers – Manningham, Ginn, Gonzalez, Payne. It seems likely that something similar will happen again this season – this is where the value will be.

6 comments:

MarxistGopher said...

wow, you really put some time into that! I guess I don't have any major disagreements with you , but I haven't looked at my 2007 draft stuff in over a month.

I do think that someone will emerge in the fall as the clear #1 pick in the draft. There'll be some RB who'll emerge, or someone will get hurt to allow someone new to be very important.

MarxistGopher's top 11 freshmen to watch:

Arrelious Benn, WR, Illinois
Mark Dell, WR, Michigan St.
Taurian Washington, WR, Ohio St.
Nick Toon, WR, Wisconsin

Troy Pollard, RB, Illinois
Andre Anderson, RB, Michigan St.
Andre Tate, RB, Minnesota
Brandon Saine, RB, Ohio State
John Clay, RB, Wisconsin

Ryan Mallet, QB, Michigan
Clint Brewster, QB, Minnesota

Jay said...

Yeah the Freshmen are weird this year. Not many that look like they can break into the line up this season. What's the Gopher 3 consensus on the Minny RB and QB situation?

MarxistGopher said...

I can't speak for the Gopher 3, but this is what I think:

It'll be RB by committee at Minnesota from now on in my opinion. Pinnix will be the started when the season starts, but it will become cleat that Jay Thomas is the better fit for the spread. Andre Tate is a good back and see lots of playing time too. It could be a 3-way deal this year, but who gets the most carries, I dunno but my money's on Thomas.

QB is even tougher. Weber was supposed to be the guy this year...and I think he would have been with Mason still here. It looks like Brewster likes them both about the same, with Mortenson probably getting the nod to start the year because of experience. Weber is definitely the better "play-maker" of the 2, especially with his feet, and is a better fit for the spread. I like Weber better, but he was behind Mortensen in learning the new offense. The monkey-wrench in the 2-way battle is Clint Brewster. he's probably a better player then both Mortensen and Weber, but it may be tough for him to break through this year. If Mortensen and Weber falter, it could be Clints team later this year. But definitely watch out for him in the future. Brewster has also said that he WONT rotate QB's. Hes going to pick one and stick with him. My assessment....Mortensen starts, Weber takes over. Next year battle between Weber and Clint Brewster.

The Minnesota QB suddenly became very a desirable fantasy position!!

Jay said...

The Minnesota QB suddenly became very a desirable fantasy position!!

Yeah, I was thinking that will be interesting -- those spread offense Running Backs generally have limited value. What a change that will be if Minnesota adopts the John L. Smith and Joe Tiller rotating backs. And the QB is throwing 50 times a game.

MarxistGopher said...

it sounds gross to me as a Gopher fan, but hey, whatever wins games.

Jay said...

As a former MB3 owner, it disgusts me!